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F1: Vettel favourite in Germany

sobota, 24. júl 2010 21:31 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

F1: Vettel favourite in Germany
F1: Vettel favourite in Germany | zdroj: Sportinglife.com

Red Bull showed clearly at Silverstone that the only team capable of beating them in the current climate is...Red Bull. Whoever pulls the strings in Milton Keynes (or Salzburg) seems to believe the best route to the championship involves annoying and undermining their driver Mark Webber.

While the reasoning behind allowing Sebastian Vettel the use of a superior front wing in qualifying seemed logical in some respects, it would have been polite if the team management had let the Australian know.

Webber's demeanour over the subesequent 24 hours revealed his frustration with the situation but his siege mentality arguably contributed to a fine win after outmanoeuvring his young team-mate in the first corner and never looking back.

The rivalry between the pair has highlighted the focus and ruthlessness of each but there is a palpable sense of paranoia within the ranks that could yet prove costly on the back nine of the championship scorecard.

As with Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton at McLaren in 2007 the team never really expected their 'second driver' to pose a season-long threat to their principal contender so when the pressure is turned up, fissures turn into cracks and irreperable damage can result.

The team has already ceded serious ground in the title chase - despite securing nine poles from 10 races between them, both their drivers sit behind their McLaren contemporaries in the standings.

In fairness Vettel, who trails Webber by seven points and title leader Hamilton by 24, has produced some admirable drives amid a catalogue misfortune and does not deserve to be painted as the villain of the piece. 

 

 

Still only 23, he continues to deliver on-track despite his team's unsettling antics and his car proving less than robust on several occasions.

Vettel is a deserved 2/1 (1.80 at Bet365) favourite for his home grand prix at Hockenheim, ahead of his team-mate at 10/3 with Hamilton and Alonso next up for McLaren and Ferrari.

Ordinarily at this stage we'd be picking one or other of the feuding Red Bulls for pole position or perming them in a forecast bet, but the current weather forecast suggests that both Friday and Saturday running could be affected by rain.

We've seen already this season that the RB6 can lose its advantage on a damp track, so while the pair remain worthy favourites the 4/11 (1.74 at Bwin) on a Red Bull pole or the 4/5 on a front-row lockout is best passed over.

That's not to say we're particularly enamoured by the odds on the McLarens in qualifying either.

Any rain could enable McLaren to repeat the kind of performance we saw from Jenson Button in Melbourne or Shanghai but there remain concerns about the effectiveness of the car's new exhaust-driven diffuser, which was ditched after two sessions at Silverstone.

The team ideally need at least two dry sessions to calibrate and optimise the device so variable track conditions on the Friday would not be welcomed by the Woking team.

Over at Maranello, however, Fernando Alonso might be worth a small bet to put behind him the wretched luck which has so far blighted the middle part of his season.

The Spaniard must still be having nightmares about safety cars after having his last two races wrecked by the appearance of the silver Merc.

He had the pace to win in Canada but had to nurse his tyres in the latter stages, while he was sitting pretty and looking at potential podium placings in Valencia and Britain before ill-timed interventions, the latter compounding a harsh penalty for an earlier overtaking indiscretion.

Backing the double world champion for the race, either each-way at 13/2 (2.87 at Bet365) or for a podium place at 11/10 (1.30 at Bwin)looks a sensible call given the question marks surrounding McLaren's updates

 

 

A further concern for all the runners is the curve ball thrown by Bridgestone, who are bringing their two most extreme tyre compounds to Hockenheim this weekend.

This is the first time there has ever been two steps between the grades of rubber and some team bosses fear the softest compound may not stand up to the forces put through them on this abrasive track.

We saw in practice for the Canadian Grand Prix that the super-soft was only good for a handful of laps before severe degradation set in, and a similar situation could occur here, especially with rain likely to wash worn rubber from the track in between sessions.

Bearing this in mind it seems sensible to hold fire on any other bets until we see which teams are coping best with their tyre usage and what strategies they could employ once qualifying is over.

One price which does stand out, though, is the 40/1 (126.00 at Bwin) on Rubens Barrichello to finish on the podium for the resurgent Williams team.

Barrichello did us proud last time out to land a 6/1 shot when finishing fifth at Silverstone and he can deliver a similar performance while celebrating the 10th anniversary of his first Formula 1 win back when Hockenheim was, quite literally, all trees.

The style of victory - from 18th on the grid on the old, high-speed layout - summed up the Brazilian's dexterity in changeable conditions, a skill which he hasn't lost in the subsequent decade.

In fact the former Ferrari man is driving better than ever in a team which clearly trusts and respects him as a lead driver and Barrichello is thriving under the responsibility.

A tilt at the podium is ambitious buthis price for a third consecutive top six finish, 10/3 (15.00 at Bwin), has had the value squeezed out of it.

So cross your fingers for conditions similar to those we saw here 10 years ago and enjoy watching him give us a run for our money.