This weekend we are very looking forward to seeing two major clashes, Schalke v Bayern and Wolfsburg v Werder, while most of the leaders have tricky matches to play. Can Leverkusen close the gap from 1st place?

Friday 3rd December 2010

20:30 CET

St.Pauli vs Kaiserslautern
These two were both promoted from the 2nd division this season, so they already know most of what they need to know about each other. Last season in division 2, Kaiserslautern won both matches, so they’ll have a small advantage in terms of confidence. Moreover, the visitors have been undefeated for 3 straight games and since their miraculous 3-3 draw against Stuttgart they’ve beaten Nurnberg away from home by 3-1 and Schalke at home by a shocking 5-0 last week! They have a three-point advantage over St.Pauli and they will try to retain or extend it.
On the other hand, the hosts have had some terrible results at home so far. What was supposed to be their main source for points seems to be the source of all the trouble that St.Pauli are in right now, as they’ve only won 1 out of 7 matches at home. Being just 2 points above Koln and counting out Schalke and Stuttgart, the hosts are in a very dangerous position. In fact their immediate rival for 15th place right now seems to be Kaiserslautern, so this match has a high level interest, as well as a high level risk for the hosts. I expect both teams to push hard for the win. Right now, you can pick both teams to score ‘yes’ at 1.67 (a couple of firms) and ‘no’ at 2.55 (Betsson) which produces a net profit of 1% on the market. However, I’ll stick with ‘yes’ alone.
Both teams to score, 1.57 at bet365.com, or over 2.5 goals, 1.80 at bet365.com.


 

Saturday 4th December 2010

15:30 CET

Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim
Stuttgart were playing on Wednesday in Switzerland against Young Boys for the Europa League and they lost by 4-2 because they conceded 3 goals within just 4 minutes. However, due to their 1st leg win by 3-0 they secured the top spot in their group and they are already through to the last-32 of the competition. Unfortunately, as well as they may be doing outside the border, they are currently in 17th place on the Bundesliga table, a place that leads directly to division 2. They’ve scored 9 points at home and only 2 away from home, so since they are unable to collect points away, they can’t afford to drop more points here. They have two very difficult matches ahead of the before the break, so all they are thinking about now is how to evade the danger zone before the break, in order to regain some of their long lost self-confidence. Last week they conceded and equalized early against Hamburger away from home, but shortly after his own equalizer, Marica faced the red card and ultimately Stuttgart lost by 4-2.
Hoffenheim got another important result last week, by turning Leverkusen’s 2-0 lead into a 2-2 draw thanks to a penalty scored with about four minutes of added time played. I personally wouldn’t touch this match, since both teams are quite unstable in terms of performance and this could go either way.
No bet.


 

Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
Wolfsburg’s Diego will meet some of his former teammates in this match, as the 2009 Champions are in desperate need for points this week after a series of unfortunate results that have brought them a whole 21 points away from the top spot. All three of their latest games have ended in a draw. Werder Bremen were recently eliminated from all European competitions for this season, however they beat St.Pauli at home last week by 3-0, thanks to Almeida’s hat trick. Unfortunately, Almeida hit an opponent with his elbow and not only was he sent off, but a three-match ban followed, so we won’t be seeing him again until 2011. That ban came at the worst moment possible, right when Werder were struggling to find players to make up their starting formation and Almeida almost won the match against St.Pauli by himself.
Both teams are having issues in defence, both will go for the win and both have some skilled attackers, but given the odds on those picks, I would opt for some anytime goalscorers.
Both teams to score, 1.45 at bet365.com or Diego to score anytime, 2.70 at bwin.com


 

Frankfurt vs Mainz
The hosts went from being respected and even feared, for their impressive performances, to losing two matches in a row conceding four goals in each of those matches and scoring just one. Last week, Gekas managed to add another goal to his account, still being the top Bundesliga scorer this season with 12 goals, temporarily equalizing Bayern’s opener, but they had a terrible second half which lead to their defeat. Mainz seem to be regaining their confidence as they easily beat Nurnberg by 3-0 at home last Friday. Both Schurrle and Allagui scored again and they will definitely pose a major threat to Frankfurt’s unstable defence.  To be honest, I expected the odds to be evenly divided between the two teams, but the bookmakers consider the hosts as favorites, so there is some value in my opinion in backing Mainz for either the win or the draw.
Mainz to win on asian hdc +0.5 goals, 1.70 at bet365.com.

Gladbach vs Hannover
The visitors barely made it out of the danger zone last season during the final match. They evaded relegation by collecting 33 points during the season, with a total of 9 wins. This time they’ve already collected 25 points and we’re still playing the first round, so it is safe to say that at this point they must think they won’t be getting worried about the same issue at all, since they’ve already won 8 matches. In fact, if they beat Gladbach, they will extend their lead over the bottom team to 18 points. Last week, they became the first team in the entire league to keep a clean sheet against Freiburg and they even won by 3-0. That was their 3rd consecutive win and they are indeed in great form.
For Gladbach, every match from now on is extremely important and they have to start making up for the lost ground immediately if they are to avoid relegation. Last season they beat Hannover at home by 5-3, but that score looks unlikely to be repeated this season, since Hannover have been treating their away games very conservatively, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 10 after 6 matches. This looks like it’s going to be too close to make any calls, but the fact is that Gladbach haven’t won any of their 7 matches played at home and the fact that the odds favor the hosts here adds some great value on the visitors.
Away win, draw-no-bet 2.38 at bet365.com.


 

Freiburg vs Hamburger
The big question is whether Freiburg will manage to bounce back after 2 consecutive defeats and mainly whether they’ll manage to score at least 1 goal, since up until last week they had a record of scoring at least a goal in every single match. They lost to Hannover by 3-0, while Hamburger beat Stuttgart by 4-2 and so the two teams are now tied in 7th place, with 21 points each. Of course their goals are quite different, with Freiburg aiming at securing their spot in the Bundesliga, while Hamburger want to achieve a top-5 finish. Freiburg are one of only two teams in the league without a draw after 14 matches. At home, they’ve won 4 matches and lost 3. Hamburger have lost all 3 of their latest away matches and they certainly have to start earning points away from home if they are going to make it to the top-5. It’s Cisse vs van Nistelrooy in what I expect to be a very close game, but with goals coming from both sides.
Both teams to score, 1.62 at bet365.com


18:30 CET

 
Schalke vs Bayern Munich
Manuel Neuer, Schalke’s goalkeeper, tried his best to explain why his team took a thrashing off of Kaiserslautern last week. “There’s no explanation really. We didn’t rise to the challenge. I can’t understand it, we knew what we were up against. If we keep playing like that we’ll go down.” He refused to comment on his defenders, who have taken a huge amount of negative criticism.
In case my beloved readers didn’t notice it, Schalke lost to Kaiserslautern last week by 5-0. That was only 3 days after their impressive 3-0 win against Lyon for the Champions League. Schalke are currently in 15th place, with 13 points, just one point above Koln and the danger zone. Out of 14 matches played so far, they’ve won only three, which is the same amount of wins they’ve got in the Champions League, where they’ve played just 5 matches and they’ve already made it through to the last-16.
Bayern have also made it to the Champions League last-16 and they are also facing a number of problems in the domestic league. Fortunately, that number is decreasing day after day. After their crucial defeat against Dortmund, they’ve gone undefeated for 7 matches in a row, which puts them second on the current form table, behind Dortmund. Unfortunately, they are still 14 points behind the leaders and they have a very difficult match this week, especially considering the fact that Bayern have got a terrible away record, with just 1 win after 6 matches, the importance this match has for Schalke, as well as reasons regarding glamour and pride. The fans seem to still be picking Bayern as the favorites for the title and we are indeed expecting to see a much better Bavarian side during the second round, especially when Robben returns, but they have a mountain to climb, that’s for sure.
Both teams to score, 1.67 at bet365.com

Sunday 5th December 2010

15:30 CET

Leverkusen vs Koln
The hosts managed to advance as group winners to the last-32 of the Europa League, as they beat Rosenborg by 1-0 away from home this Wednesday. They are currently 3rd on the Bundesliga table, but the two consecutive draws against Bayern and Hoffenheim have caused them to lose some more ground from the top spot.
In fact, they have faced some serious problems in winning home games, since they’ve only won 2 out of 7 so far (only St.Pauli and Gladbach have fewer home wins) and against a team as weak as Koln the win is the only way to go.
The visitors have collected 4 points over the last two matches, against Stuttgart and Wolfsburg and that has kept them just above the places that lead directly to division 2. They have managed to tighten their defence and they will certainly approach this match with a highly defensive orientation. Leverkusen haven’t been scoring many goals lately and considering the fact that Koln managed to keep a clean sheet against Bayern and Stuttgart and they were very close to grabbing a point against Dortmund, plus the fact that Leverkusen could be affected by the trip to Norway, the odds offered on the home win are anything but appealing.
Under 2.5 goals, 2.20 at bwin.com and Sportingbet.com.


17:30 CET

Nurnberg vs Dortmund
Bad news for the table leaders, as they may have beaten Lviv by 3-0 for the Europa League but PSZ beat Sevilla and they only way for Dortmund to advance to the last-32 is to beat Sevilla in Spain, so the odds are they won’t qualify.
Qualification would mean more money for the club, which could help to sign a couple of transfers, but as strange as it may seem Dortmund may even benefit from a likely elimination, since they’ll be concentrating solely on winning the Bundesliga title.
So far they’ve done an amazing job, with 12 wins and 1 draw after their defeat during the opening match and they’ve been extending their lead over their rivals for many weeks now. Last week they completely dominated the second half against a terrible defensively Gladbach and Nurnberg are also facing some problems in the back line which are clearly demonstrated by the amount of 3 goals they’ve conceded in each of their last three matches, all lost of course. Nevertheless, odds on the away win are once again very low and Dortmund have come close to dropping points many times, plus they could be a bit tired from their Thursday night European match.
Under 3.5 goals, 1.44 at bet365.com and Betsson.com.


My accumulator:
"Both teams to score" in St.Pauli vs Kaiserslautern +
"Both teams to score" in Freiburg vs Hamburger +
"Both teams to score" in Wolfsburg vs Werder +
"Both teams to score" in Schalke vs Bayern and
Mainz to win on asian 0.5 hdc = 10.4 at Bet365