Preview: German Bundesliga I, Matchday 11
Dortmund climbed on the top of the Bundesliga table but this weekend they a difficult task in hand. Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will try to bounce back, competing against each other.
Saturday 6th November 2010
15:30 CET
Nurnberg vs Koln
This season has started in a very unusual way generally, but specifically in Nurnberg’s case the results couldn’t have been more bizarre. Let me sum up what they’ve managed so far: They failed to beat teams like Gladbach, Freiburg and St. Pauli but at the same time they grabbed points against Hamburger and Leverkusen away from home, while they beat Stuttgart, Schalke Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen, the latter away from home! Next week they’ll try their luck in the Allianz Arena against Bayern Munich and that’s when their extremely difficult but surprisingly successful schedule will lighten up. I wasn’t expecting them to have collected more than 5-6 points by now, yet they’ve collected 15 points, the same as Bayern Munich! If their bizarre results are to continue, then they will face many problems against Koln. The visitors, thanks to Novakovic’s hat trick beat Hamburger last week and managed to get out of the danger zone last week, as they reached 8 points. However, they consider Nurnberg as an immediate enemy in the battle against relegation so they will try to score some points here in order to improve their terrible away record so far (1 point from 5 matches). Odds on the home win are fair and I recall considering this a 3-pointer for Nurnberg when drawing the season plans, however Nurnberg have struggled to win matches against the weaker teams so I am a bit skeptical about this.
- Home win, 2.00 at bwin.com
Gladbach vs Bayern Munich
The Champions are showing some signs of improvement, at least in terms of scoring, as they’ve already scored 8 goals since last Friday. They beat Freiburg at home by 4-2 and this Wednesday they beat Cluj by 4-0 away from home for the Champions League group stage, with Gomez scoring his 2nd hat trick this season. On the other hand, Gladbach are still going from bad to worse. Last week they lost 3-0 to Kaiserslautern and they remain stuck at the bottom of the table with just 6 points collected from 10 matches. They have conceded a record-high 30 goals so far and if you do the math that should turn into about 100 goals conceded at the end of the season. Of course, that number probably won’t be reached, but so far everyone in the country has had a field day with their defences. Bayern are also in desperate need for points, as they are 10 points behind Dortmund on the table, but the question is whether or not the trip to Romania will play its part. Odds on the away win are fairly low, so my pick will involve goals being scored since Gladbach’s average so far is over 3.5 goals per game and the odds are a little bit better at the moment.
- Away win, 1.57 at bet365.com or over 2.5 goals, 1.67 at Betsson.com.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg
The hosts confirmed against St.Pauli last week that they are indeed on top form at the moment. Just by looking at the table over the last 5 games, Frankfurt are in fact at the very top spot, having collected 13 points which is the same as table leaders Dortmund. A total of 16 points from 10 matches brings Frankfurt up to 5th place so far and it has become clear that many players are highly motivated. Wolfsburg are only 3 points behind, but that also means they are in 12th place. Last week they beat Stuttgart by 2-0, ending a three-game series with no victory. This was only the second time this season they managed to keep a clean sheet. It also looks like they only stand a chance to win matches when Dzeko scores. Last season the match between these teams ended in a draw while Wolfsburg won the 2nd leg match. There were four goals scored in each of those matches (2-2 and 3-1). I don’t expect another clean sheet from Wolfsburg here, so my pick will once again involve goals being scored.
- Over 2.5 goals, 1.67 at Betsson.com
Freiburg vs Mainz
The second defeat for Mainz this season came at the worst time possible as they were dethroned by Dortmund last week. Freiburg couldn’t do much either, against a very decisive Bayern Munich side. What’s really interesting here is the fact that these are the only two teams with no draw after 10 matches! For Freiburg, a draw here wouldn’t be treated as a bad result, while Mainz will certainly push for the win in order to keep up with the new leaders, but a draw won’t be devastating for them either, plus they can’t just keep on winning every match away from home. Surely one can argue that the visitors have to win in order to keep the dream alive, but my feeling is that those very talented players guided by a very talented coach are insisting on a play that’s now an open book for their opponents to study and eventually the opposition will adapt to that play and find a way to break their defences. I would advise against betting on this match, but since neither team will probably end the season without any draws, perhaps this is the only tempting bet.
- Draw, 3.50 at Betsson.com
Hamburger vs Hoffenheim
The hosts have been having their ups and downs during the first 10 matches. After a smooth start with 2 straight wins came four matches without win followed by another 2 straight wins and finally a draw against Bayern and a bad performance last week against Koln which led to a 3-2 defeat which left them in 8th place with 15 points.
On the other hand, the visitors are currently in 3rd place as they are once again starting the season in style and they are a very tough nut to crack. Only Bayern and former leaders Mainz have beaten them so far. This is by no means an indication that they can’t handle matches against some of the top teams, as their achievements so far include victories against Werder Bremen, Schalke and Hannover, as well as an away draw against Dortmund, a match they were just seconds away from taking all 3 points.
On the contrary, Hamburger have been facing many difficulties when playing against teams that tighten up their defences and strike in counter-attack. Failures against Nurnberg, St.Pauli and Koln didn’t go unnoticed.
Any outcome is possible here but so far 7 out of 10 halftime results in Hamburger’s matches were tied, so there is some food for thought right there.
- Halftime result Draw, 2.25 at bet365.com.
Sunday 7th November 2010
15:30 CET
Hannover vs Dortmund
This is a much anticipated local derby, especially this season since Hannover are not currently fighting to avoid relegation as expected, but are sitting rather comfortably in 6th place, so pride could for once have a higher priority than points-hunting. Dortmund are now enjoying the top spot on the table, after a magnificent run since their opening match defeat and even though they still don’t consider themselves as favorites to win the title, they certainly will try their best to keep that dream alive as long as possible, or at least try to grab an extremely important Champions League spot. However, odds on the away win are terrible, especially considering the fact that since 2006 there have been 4 matches hosted in Hannover between these teams and Hannover won 2 of them, while the points were shared between the rivals in the other 2 matches. Dortmund have won all 5 away games so far, but we all know they can’t keep winning every away from home. They will lose eventually. Moreover, they had to travel to France for a late-Thursday night match against PSZ for the Europa League this week, which by the way ended in a goalless draw that practically leaves them no chance to advance to the next round so we should add disappointment on top of fatigue as well! All things considered I believe my pick is worth the risk.
17:30 CET
Leverkusen vs Kaiserslautern
The hosts have been facing some major scoring problems over the past few weeks. Starting with their defeat against Mainz they’ve played 4 games (Mainz, Schalke and twice against Aris for the Europa League) and they’ve only scored two goals. Thankfully, they’ve become more aware in defence so their inability to score goals hasn’t been that costly. A very interesting fact about Leverkusen is that they’ve only won 1 out of 5 home games so far. They are currently in 3rd place, but if they are to go any higher on the table they absolutely must win matches against inferior opponents at home. They struggled against Gladbach and Nurnberg, while they got their only win against Frankfurt thanks to a penalty-kick that Vidal turned into a goal just a few moments before the end.
Kaiserslautern don’t pose much of a threat at the moment. Surely they beat Gladbach by 3-0 last week, a win that allowed them to take a deep breath and escape the danger zone, at least for now, but the fact remains that they lose much of their power when they travel away from home. An interesting fact about Kaiserslautern is that 3 of their 4 away defeats had the exact same score, 2-1, as well as exactly the same pattern: Kaiserslautern were leading by 1-0 but couldn’t hold on to their lead all three times. That’s certainly not a good sign for them at all. Odds on the home win appear fair, but I ‘m still not convinced that Leverkusen will surely pull it off, especially if they concede an early goal.
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
The final match of the weekend is in fact expected to be the most glamorous. The hosts are in a terrible position on the table, just 1 point ahead of the bottom spot and 18 points away from the top. However, they have won 2 matches at home and the home factor is what they count on to collect as many points as possible in order to get back on track, that is if they can of course. The players reacted well to fact that they couldn’t score any goals against Wolfsburg last week, as they beat Getafe by 3-0 away from home on a late Thursday night match for the Europa League, securing the top spot in their group and their ticket to the next round. Werder Bremen are in a state that’s not much better. After losing to Nurnberg at home last week, they lost an extremely important match at home again on Wednesday against Twente for the Champions League group stage, a defeat that will probably rule them out of all European Competitions this season. About two weeks ago they got their first win away from home in this season’s Bundesliga but they are still 11 points away from the top spot. Fatigue could play its part here, but there’s only one pick I always think of when it comes to matches involving Werder Bremen.
My picks:
