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Champions League: Round 4 (Tuesday)

utorok, 2. november 2010 12:33 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

Champions League: Round 4 (Tuesday)
Champions League: Round 4 (Tuesday) | zdroj: sportinglife.com

The Champions League group stage moves into its second half this week, and there's no doubt about the game of the day on Tuesday night.

For Tottenham, it's their biggest game in almost 50 years as they welcome one of Europe's elite clubs to White Hart Lane in Europe's premier competition for the first time since 1961/2.

Inter Milan are the visitors, and it promises to be a cracking encounter. Inter won the reverse fixture 4-3 - an astonishing match in which the Italians raced into a 4-0 lead before half-time against a shellshocked Spurs who hit back through a Gareth Bale hat-trick to make the scoreline respectable.

And those goals could prove crucial: because Spurs are now in a position where almost any victory at White Hart Lane would give them a head-to-head advantage over the Italians and put them in pole position for top spot in Group A.

And if they had a full-strength side available, we'd probably back them to do it at 2.60.

While Spurs have sometimes looked naive away from home in their first go at the Champions League - falling 3-0 and 4-0 down in quick time against Young Boys and Inter and throwing away a 2-0 lead at Werder Bremen - the same has not been true at White Hart Lane.

Young Boys were blown away 4-0 in north London and FC Twente dispatched 4-1.

And while Spurs' away form against the Premier League big boys remains woeful, they have enjoyed plenty of success at the Lane: Chelsea have lost three of their last four at Tottenham, Liverpool their last two, while Arsenal and Manchester City both came off second best last season. City were indebted to a Joe Hart masterclass to escape with a goalless draw on the opening day of this campaign.

So Tottenham should have no fear of facing a top side in the familiar surroundings of their home ground.

But that caveat we mentioned earlier comes into play. For Spurs will not be at full strength. They are without their first-choice keeper (Heurelho Gomes), their first-choice defensive pair (Ledley King and Michael Dawson) and their top striker (Jermain Defoe).

And to further dampen Spurs hopes, the inspirational Rafael van der Vaart and Tom Huddlestone - alongside Bale Spurs' three top performers this season - are both doubtful.

Should that pair miss out, then suddenly Inter look massive value at 2.70.

But they have problems of their own. They too are set to be without their first-choice Brazilian keeper after Julio Cesar limped out of Friday's win at Genoa, while Esteban Cambiasso is another injury concern. Diego Milito - a baffling omission from FIFA's Ballon D'Or longlist - is still feeling his way back from injury.

In short, there are simply too many doubts and uncertainties at this stage for us to get involved in the match markets.

The value lies elsewhere. First of all, we'll take Bet365's 3.00 in the over 3.5 goals market.

While both these sides' domestic games have been generally low-scoring, the same is certainly not true in the Champions League.

Indeed, this bet would've landed in every game played by the pair in Europe this season, with Spurs' games total goals reading 5, 4, 4, 5, 7 and Inter's: 4, 4, 7.

With these teams the second and third highest scorers in this year's competition, both first-choice keepers missing, and doubts over crucial defensively-minded players on both sides, this is a confident selection.

We'll also have an each-way punt on van der Vaart to be first goalscorer. He's scored in each of his home games for Spurs this season and, in the absence of Defoe, is their biggest goal threat. Odds at 7.50 at Bet365.

If he fails to recover from his hamstring injury, at least we get our stake back rather than gambling on his fitness in backing a home win.

Bet365 again, offer a massive 2.75 on Samuel Eto'o to score anytime, and that's a price we just can't pass up. He's netted in all three of Inter's Group A games thus far, collecting six goals in total including two against Spurs last time out, and should once again enjoy himself against a second-string defence.

The other English team in action on Tuesday is Manchester United, who travel to Turkish side Bursaspor, and we expect something very different here.

While Inter and Spurs have scored 19 goals between them, Group C has featured just nine goals in total.

Since Bursaspor's 4-0 drubbing against Valencia on Matchday One, defences have generally been on top in this group.

United have already picked up two 1-0 wins to go with a 0-0 draw against Rangers, while Bursaspor have lost their last two games 1-0.

They've also shipped just five goals in 10 games in the Turkish league, and no goalscorer (0-0 final score) looks too big at 7.10 with Betsson.

But given that United's last two games have been 1-0 wins and Bursaspor's last two 1-0 defeats, it seems prudent to have a saver on that scoreline at the 4.90 available with betsson.

Elsewhere in that group, Valencia should be too strong for battling Rangers, but 1.40 quotes on a home win don't get us excited against a side who are still unbeaten this season.

PICKS:
Over 3.5 goals in Spurs v Inter at 3.00
at Bet365
Rafael van der Vaart to score first at 7.50
at Bet365.
Samuel Eto'o to score anytime v Spurs at 2.75
at Bet365
No Goalscorer in Bursaspor v Man Utd at 7.10
at Betsson.
United to win 1-0 at 4.90
at Betsson