After a short midweek break that included Cup matches, we are in for a hot weekend! This weekend's action includes the clash of the table leaders, while the big clubs prepare for another important week regarding the international competitions.

Friday 29th October 2010

20:30 CET

Bayern Munich vs Freiburg
The Champions were tied with Hamburger last Friday away from home, clearly showing once again that their attacking abilities have been greatly affected by the long-term absences of Robben and Ribery. Despite scoring 3 goals a fortnigh ago, their total of 8 goals scored in 9 matches easily hands them the bottom place in terms of scoring in the Bundesliga! Combined with Mainz’s massive win away from home against Leverkusen, the Bavarians are now 12 points behind the table leaders and any negative result against a far inferior, in theory, Freiburg side this week could cause some major concerns or even changes in the squad.
Freiburg on the other side, have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league so far. They have set out to simply secure their place in the top league, but after 9 matches they have managed to climb up to 4th place with 15 points. Last week came their 5th win of the season against Kaiserslautern that gave them a massive 8 points lead over their rivals in the aforementioned battle and with Gladbach and Koln being even further down the table, they really have nothing to lose tonight, but so much to win in case they can not-so-miraculously grab a point or three.
There is very little room for error left for Bayern now.
Home win 1.32 at Betsson.com


 

Saturday 30th October 2010

15:30 CET
Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg
The hosts were more than convincing last week as they crushed Gladbach away from home by 4-1. Their demonstration included nothing different than what was expected from a team that certainly know how to score goals, but lack concentration at the back. That was their first away win this season and it was enough to give them a two point lead over Bayern while at the same time they closed the gap from Leverkusen and Hamburger to just one point. Team morale should be good.
Nurnberg rarely score over 1 goal in a single match and last week they scored 2 goals against Wolfsburg. Their win was more than important, it was a major confidence boost plus the 3 points collected now put Nurnberg in 11th place, tied with Bayern Munich. They knew they had the most difficult schedule among all the bottom teams and they have really pulled a miracle with some amazing results against the top teams. But the storm is not over yet. Their favorite play is at stake, since Werder Bremen have shown great ability in breaking down tough defences (except Mainz’s of course), and I believe we will see a more attacking Nurnberg this week, like the one we enjoyed against Schalke a fortnight ago. If indeed they approach this game in that way we are in for another “over 2.5 goals” game easily and I would rather take that bet over the home win any time of the year when it comes to Werder Bremen.
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 at bet365.com



Wolfsburg vs Stuttgart
Two teams that only recently conquered the Bundesliga, have been struggling now for over 2 months to keep up with the rest of their rivals. Wolfsburg seem to be going from bad to worse, while Stuttgart have shown some improvement after the short break and last week they got their second win this season that put them for the first time above the danger zone. Of course, no one seriously thought that Stuttgart could even struggle to even do that, but it is a psychological advantage nevertheless to know that you have escaped any immediate danger to be kicked out of the top league, plus they had to convince the fans that they can handle matches against opponents such as St. Pauli with ease.
The hosts are changing faces every week. Their 3 wins and 5 defeats after 9 matches prove just that. Their inconsistency in defence, unless fixed, will probably result in a mid-table finish for them and if they lose this match against Stuttgart, their hopes for a spot that will give them a European ticket will perish sooner than expected. I expect the hosts to push hard for the win, but Stuttgart will find the space to attack as well.
Over 2.5 goals 1.50 at bet365.com



Koln vs Hamburger
The hosts are now stuck in last place, after Schalke grabbed a point last week. Of course, they were never going to compete with Schalke in this section of the table, but knowing that dispite some descent performances they still can’t collect enough points does cause some problems in team spirit. Their latest defeat, against Hannover, put them 11 points away from a rival they outperformed last season. Their home field is the only place to look for valuable points right now, but they’ve only scored 4 goals in 4 matches. Moreover, Hamburger have been paying some more attention in defence lately, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they escaped with a clean sheet from Koln. This certainly looks like a tricky match for the visitors, as the hosts are in desperate need for points, but if they can keep maintain their concentration for 90 minutes they are likely to grab all three points.
Both teams to score – NO 2.05 at bwin.com, Hamburger to keep a clean sheet 2.75 at bet365.com, Away Win 2.10 at bwin.com



Kaiserslautern vs Gladbach
Here are two teams that were expected to be struggling and are doing… much worse! Finally, something normal about this league. The hosts won their very first two matches, but since then it’s defeat after defeat for them and they are stuck with just 7 for a long time now. Gladbach are just one point below, but they’ve only won one match so far and that was probably the main reason for the defeats that followed!
Kaiserslautern lost to Freiburg away from home last week, while Gladbach lost to Werder at home by 1-4.
The home side are desperately looking for their first win after 2 months, while the visitors at least manage to score a couple of goals in every game away from home but also concede in a terribly bad frequency, 27 goals in 9 matches means they concede an average of 3 goals per game. Will there even be a winner in this match? A draw doesn’t really help either of them. I would like to see the hosts taking advantage of the home ground, but I really don’t know what to expect from this match.
Over 2.5 goals 1.73 at bet365.com or Home Win 2.10 at bet365.com (low stakes).

St Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Both teams are tied in 9th place, with 13 points each and exactly the same results even if you look at the home and away tables. For Frankfurt this was somewhat expected, while St.Pauli got off to a great start, but lately they seem to be struggling. The only difference between them is that Frankfurt have scored 14 and conceded just 9 goals, while the numbers for St.Pauli are 11 and 12 respectively. In fact, Frankfurt is among the four teams that have conceded less than 10 goals so far and I would like to complement their defensive skills, since most of their 11 away goals scored so far came from that amazing win against Gladbach. St Pauli have had a few problems scoring goals lately and last week they lost to Stuttgart by 2-0 away from home, while Frankfurt kept a glorious clean sheet against Schalke at home. Moreover, the visitors have more experience in the top league and a couple of attackers in great shape (Gekas just scored two goals this Wednesday on the Cup game) so I am leaning towards Frankfurt here but I will cover my bet on the draw just in case.
Away win – Draw no bet 2.10 at Betsson.com


18:30 CET
Schalke vs Leverkusen
One of the two major matches this weekend is due to kick off on Saturday afternoon. Schalke’s officials spent millions to sign Raul and Huntelaar, but after 2 months they still haven’t won a home game in the league and they are currently withing the danger zone with just 6 points from 9 matches. Last week they failed to even score a single goal against Frankfurt, while their latest “achievements” include a defeat from Nurnberg and a draw against Gladbach. Of course, Leverkusen were the victim of the most humiliating result among the top teams and that was against Gladbach as well, but their results since then were much better than their rivals. Or at least they were, until last week when they faced Mainz and the leaders beat the “aspirins” on their own field by 1-0. The hosts are now 18 points away from the top and the visitors are 9 points away, so naturally they should both push hard for the win, but a draw will certainly favor the visitors, who are undefeated in 4 matches away from home so far.
Both teams have their own problems in attacking as well as defending, but in case Schalke find their way to the back of the net, I don’t think Leverkusen will be able to respond. After all, Schalke’s defence has issues but they are not as terrible as Wolfsburg as to concede 3 goals within 10 minutes after leading 2-0.
Home win – Draw no bet 1.80 at bet365.com

 

Sunday 31st October 2010

15:30 CET
Mainz vs Dortmund
Week by week these two have been quietly (Dortmund) or not so quietly (Mainz) building up a significant lead over the rest of the table and finally it’s time to face each other in a battle that will determine who will be on top of this round.
Mainz are enjoying themselves. With limited budget and many youngsters in the squad, their achievements have made the news around the whole world. Their latest victim, Leverkusen, was added to a long list full of top teams that kneeled on their own field in front of the most enthusiastic squad in the league. Only Hamburger managed to break their winning streak and Dortmund will certainly review that video again and again in order to approach this match in the best possible way.
The visitors were also on a long winning streak after their defeat in the opening match, but last week they were halted by Hoffenheim in a repeat of last season’s 1-1 draw again on their own field that once again prevented them from earning two very valuable points. However the past is the past and with the battle that will determine the table leaders this Sunday, both teams will be extremely careful in defense and try to make the most out of every attacking effort. They both concede less than 1 goal per game in average, so I don’t expect to see many goals scored here either.
Mainz were knocked out of the DFB-Pokal a few days ago by Aachen. Did they intentionally forfeit the Cup in order to pursue the title? We will find out sooner or later.
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 at Betsson.com


17:30 CET
Hoffenheim vs Hannover
The hosts have not produced anything spectacular so far, despite the fact that they are in 4th place. I believe it is the same Hoffenheim we have seen over the past couple of years, starting the season in style and losing track of the top spots around spring. But Hannover’s 3rd place so far is a major achievement. After just 9 games, a quarter of the season, they have collected about half the points they collected during the whole 2009/10 season. It’s not that the squad is twice as good this season, it’s rather their light schedule combined with some underperforming opponents that’s lead to them winning 5 out of 9 matches so far. Even so, the fact that they are already 10 points above the danger zone will give take a great deal of stress off their backs and could potentially make them extremely dangerous in counter attack. Last week they beat Koln at home by 2-1, a result that caused the smiles on people’s faces to grow even larger. However, if they appear too relaxed this week they will lose.
Home win 1.67 at Betsson.com


My bets:

• Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg:Over 2.5 goals + Wolfsburg vs Stuttgart:Over 2.5 goals + Mainz vs Dortmund:Under 2.5 goals = 4.54 at Bet365
• Schalke DNB + Frankfurt DNB + Bayern Munich = 4.64 at Bet365