Preview: German Bundesliga I, Matchday 3
After the short break, during which Nationalmannschaft won both matches for the Euro 2012 qualification group stage, the clubs will now enter a month full of extremely important matches for the domestic title, as well as for the European Cups.
Friday 10th September 2010
21:30 CET
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04
Believe it or not, bookmakers consider the hosts here as the favourites despite Schalke now sporting one of the most powerful European attacking lines with Raul, Hundelaar and Farfan. The only reason we see these reversed odds is the fact that Hoffenheim are currently at the top of the table, as they have won both their matches (including an amazing 4-1 win against Werder Bremen at home) while Schalke are at the bottom of the table, as they have lost both their matches (including a terrible result at home against Hannover).
I did state before match-day 2 that Hoffenheim look like repeating their glorious start again as in the 2 previous seasons, while at the same time I did point out that we couldn’t trust Schalke for home wins just yet. Well, I still haven’t changed my mind and I was going to suggest a home win here, but I expected the odds to be much different. Schalke seem to be having problems in defence, with Christophe Metzelder receiving most of the criticism, as he was expected to make a big difference in defence. At the same time their attacking power should be (at least in theory) at an all-time high, I think we can rely on bets involving goals once again here.
- Both teams to score, 1.62 at Bet365
Saturday 11th September 2010
15:30 CET
Borussia Dortmund vs Wolfsburg
The hosts lost their first match of the season at home, but quickly bounced back to beat Stuttgart 3-1 away from home. This week they return to the Westfallenstadion and this time they must please their fans by beating Wolfsburg. The 2009 champions have lost both their matches so far and they’ve lost them in ways that have really hurt the team. After conceding a goal in added time during the opening match, their confidence took an even bigger hit when they managed to concede four (4) goals and lose a match at home which they were comfortably leading by 3-0. Although Dzeko scored a hat-trick, Wolfsburg have serious issues in defence, despite the presence of Arne Friedrich, and the midfielders really aren’t helping when the team is defending. Diego is doubtful for this match.
Striker Dimitar Rangelov has moved from Dortmund to Maccabi Tel Aviv on loan.
In theory, Dortmund will have the upper hand here, however, with Wolfsburg being probably the most unpredictable and unstable team defensive-wise in the league, there are a few bets I would recommend here.
- Over 2.5 goals, 1.65 at Bwin or over 3.5 goals, 2.75 at Bwin or home team goals over 1.5 goals, 1.83 at Bet365
Gladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt
The hosts shocked the whole country after beating Leverkusen 6-3 away from home! They took advantage of their opponents’ midweek European clash and completely crushed them and even led by 4 goals (2-6). Gladbach have collected 4 points from their first two matches while Frankfurt, on the other hand, have lost both their matches. In fact, they couldn’t even maintain their half-time lead (1-0) against Hamburger and lost 1-3 at home. The hosts come into this match looking like winners, while at the same time the visitors are clearly out of form. However, the short break may have given Frankfurt a chance to work on some strategies that will allow them to cope better with whatever in-game situations may be established. If you feel that you can’t leave this match out of your betting slip then try either the home win, or home win draw-no-bet (offered at 1.62 at bwin), however I strongly recommend that you avoid this match.
- No bet.
Freiburg vs Stuttgart
After the original shock for Freiburg, conceding 3 goals within the final 8 minutes at home against St. Pauli, the team quickly bounced back and beat Nurnberg away from home 1-2. Papiss Cisse has scored all of Freiburg’s 3 goals so far and he seems to be in great shape. Stuttgart, the 2007 champions, are yet again having a bad start to the season, however this is the first time in many years that they’ve lost both their opening matches. In fact, they are at the bottom of the table, having the worst goal difference (-4 goals) along with Koln. They don’t have bad players, it’s just that they haven’t started playing like the solid team we know they can be. Georg Niedermeier has received most of the criticism, as he seems to be the weak spot in mid-field, however coach Christian Gross supports him and has faith that his player will find his form. Captain Matthieu Delpierre has suffered a setback in his recovery from a patellar tendon injury during training and will likely miss this match (or play a limited amount of time as a substitute).
Odds on the home win are quite high, especially considering what the visitors have (or haven’t) shown us so far, however how can anyone rely on a team that usually battles to avoid relegation for a home win against a former champion? I have a feeling that both teams (especially Stuttgart) will be looking to secure their defences primarily so that they won’t lose another match, so perhaps there is some value in both teams to score – NO, 2.10 at bet365 or only one team to score, 2.38 at Sportingbet.
- Under 2.5 goals, 2.00 at Bet365
Hamburger vs Nurnberg
The visitors managed to collect only 1 point from their two matches against Gladbach and Freiburg and now they have a mountain to climb as their schedule couldn’t have been worse. They will face (in the following order) Haburger, Leverkusen, Stuttgart, Frankfurt (away), Schalke, St.Pauli (away), Wolfsburg, Werder, Koln and Bayern Munich, 10 matches from which only the home win against Koln looks likely. They could easily reach match-day 12 with only 5-6 points (well, a less disastrous scenario should give them around 8-10 points by then, which is still bad). Their main goal is to avoid relegation (including the play-out spot they got last season) but it looks as if they will be in the danger zone for most of the season. Thankfully, their schedule improves near the end, so I believe that if they can keep up with the rest of the teams, they will have a good chance to avoid relegation at the end.
The hosts kicked off better than expected, with striker Ruud van Nistelrooy scoring both goals against Schalke, plus the crucial goal that gave his team the lead with 9 minutes to go in Frankfurt. However, the problem with Hamburg is how they perform at home against inferior opponents, such as Gladbach, Bochum, Hoffenheim, Hannover and Mainz. All of those teams managed to leave Hamburg with points in the bag last season, so it will be interesting to see how Hamburger will approach a theoretically easy match this season for the first time. Will they be more careful at the back or repeat the same mistakes they made last season? Odds on the home win are extremely low. Last season Hamburger, with no real need for points, hosted Nurnberg, in serious need of points with just 1 week remaining and the hosts won by 4-0, sending Nurnberg to participate in the play-outs. Odds on that home win were around 1.85! I expect both teams to pay attention in defence, so if I were to pick anything here I would pick:
- Either a risky under 2.5 goals, 2.43 at Bet365 or No bet.
Hannover 96 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Hannover have had a great start, winning both their matches by 2-1. By beating both Frankfurt and Schalke they have proved that they will be stronger this season in the battle to avoid relegation as well as being a possible threat in causing unexpected losses to the big clubs. Leverkusen started their season with a massive win at Dortmund, however they then went on to lose their next match (last season they were undefeated for 24 straight matches). In fact that loss was much worse than anyone could have asked for, since Gladbach made a fool of their defensive line and scored 6 goals in the BayArena. Ballack is clearly out of shape, but many others performed terribly, perhaps exluding Kiessling and Derdiyok. They will be under tremendous pressure to bounce back immediately, here in Hannover, but that doesn’t mean their task will get any easier. In fact, last season, during their undefeated run, they didn’t even manage to score a single goal here (0-0). Odds on the away win are low, but the visitors have to redeem themselves for that embarrassing defeat, so if you must pick something I can’t think of anything else than the away win.
18:30 CET
Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen
This is by far the biggest match this week. The champions will have to make do without Robben once again. Latest exams revealed that he had indeed sustained two hamstring injuries during the World Cup (one of the tears was 5cm long!) but the Dutch doctors had only discovered one. Werder Bremen striker, Claudio Pizarro, is doubtful for this clash, as he picked up a thigh injury during their last match against Koln. His participation may be a last-minute decision so keep an eye out for the latest news.
Bayern managed to beat Wolfsburg in the opening match of the season, however they lost to Kaiserslautern 2-0 away from home, a match they didn’t pay enough attention to, despite everyone knowing it might be tricky. Werder started with a shocking 4-1 defeat against Hoffenheim, however they quickly bounced back and beat Koln at home by 4-2.
Miro Klose in scoring responded to criticism by doing what he does best and that’s turning chances into goals. He scored the only goal of Germany’s win in Belgium and another two goals against Azerbaijan, closing the gap from the record man Gerd Mueller.
Naturally, odds favour the hosts, however, such matches are always tricky and unpredictable. Although 3 of their previous 4 clashes in Munich ended in a 1-1 draw, the other one went to the visitors by an amazing 5-2 win. Perhaps it is time for the hosts to win after so many years and perhaps we will see more goals than usual.
Sunday 12th September 2010
15:30 CET
Mainz vs Kaiserslautern
This is a highly anticipated clash between two teams who have so far won both their matches. Both teams have been quite tight in defence (Mainz did concede 3 goals but Dzeko is simply an amazing striker and under any other circumstances they wouldn’t have conceded 3) and with quality in attack and by principle both teams have begun by setting out to avoid relegation, though both of them have proven that they are capable of doing much more than that. A battle between teams with similar ambitions and power is always entertaining to watch, however there is really nothing to point out betting-wise, so I will save us all some time and money by closing this preview here.
- No bet.
FC Koln vs St. Pauli
Here we have another match with many similarities to the previous one, as both teams will probably be battling to avoid relegation, even though they have signed some high-quality players this season. Lucas Podolski seems to fit better at Koln rather than at Bayern Munich, however his teammates haven’t been keeping up so far and Koln lost both their matches. However, considering the fact that they were facing Werder Bremen away from home and Kaiserslautern at home, and with a red card shown to Mohamed after just one minute of play, I wouldn’t call them “out of form” lightly.
St. Pauli got off to a great start by beating Freiburg 3-1 away from home, however they lost to Hoffenheim at home in their second match, practically erasing their important away win. Both teams have a strong wish for points from this match so, once again, I advise everyone to avoid betting money on this one.
- No bet.
My Suggestions:
- Dortmund-Wolfsburg: Over 2.5 goals and
- Bayern-Werder over 2.5 goals.
