Preview: German Bundesliga I, Matchday 2
This week, three clubs had to travel abroad in order to compete in the European Cups just 3 days before their championship matches this weekend, (only Stuttgart had the luxury of playing at home). The schedule is full of tricky and unpredictable matches, making this one of the most difficult weekends in terms of tips, picks and value bets.
Friday 27th August 2010
20:30 CET
FC Kaiserslautern - Bayern München
This was a good start for both teams in the Bundesliga, as ‘lautern’ managed to defeat 10-men Köln thanks to 3 goals scored in the closing stages of the match, despite the efforts of the hosts to maintain that 1-0 lead they took early on.
The champions, Bayern, also managed to break the defences of Wolfsburg in time added on and got away with no casualties from the first day.
Martin Demichelis recently declared his intent to leave the Bavarians and his agent has revealed that Juventus, Chelsea, Barcelona and Sevilla are all after his signature.
In addition, Dynamo Moscow are after Bayern’s Midfielder Anataliy Tymoshchuk.
Napoli have signed Jose Sosa from Bayern Munich in a €2 million deal, while the Bavarians are after winger Matthieu Valbuena, who had a great season with Olympique Marseille in Le Championnat, even though Mario Gomez, currently fourth-choice striker, has ruled out a transfer this summer and vowed to win back his place in the team.
Kaiserslautern were very strong at home last season in Bundesliga II, while Bayern Munich usually underperform away from home, so this match could be quite tricky.
Odds on the away win are extremely low.
- Both teams to score, 1.73 at Bet365
Saturday 28th August 2010
15:30 CET
Werder Bremen - FC Köln
Last week, Werder seemed to be in great shape after the first leg of the Champions League play-offs and everything seemed to be going fine after they took an early lead against Hoffenheim away from home. However, the hosts equalized quickly and within 7 minutes, in the closing stages of the first half, they managed to score another 3 goals, sending a clear message to Bremen. Even worse for Werder, Hugo Almeida was added to the injury list that includes stars Naldo and Aaron Hunt. This week, they were face to face with elimination from the Champions League Group Stage, after being down by 3 goals in Italy against Sampdoria, however Markus Rosenberg scored in the third minute of injury time to take the tie to extra-time, where Claudio Pizzaro scored the decisive goal. Marco Marin seems to be the new leader in midfield for Bremen, since Diego and Ozil have left the club in the past 2 years. Werder Bremen seem to be closing in on a deal with 33-year-old Mikael Silvestre, in a move to reinforce their defensive line, which (obviously) has issues.
Köln Captain Youssef Mohamad received a three-match suspension after earning a straight red card for fouling Erwin Hoffer, who was adjudged to be clear on goal.
The decision has raised many reactions from the fans, but the player can make an appeal in order to cut it down to a one-match suspension, which is the standard punishment for straight red cards.
After a very anxious week with mixed feelings, Werder have to bounce back in order not to lose more ground in the Bundesliga I, however there are now indications that would reassure us of a home win here. Odds on the home win appear fair to me, however my favourite bet on Werder is offered at even better odds (unless Köln can repeat last season’s miracle away record).
- Over 2.5 goals, 1.53 at Bet365
Schalke 04 - Hannover 96
The hosts still need to make another couple of additions to the squad, according to coach Felix Magath and the latest reports indicate a deal with Wolfsburg playmaker Zvjezdan Misimovic, for a four-year contract worth €3.5 million per year plus bonuses, as well as an agreement with Marseille’s striker Brandao, despite the rumours regarding a 5 million bid on Roma’s Julio Baptista and high interest in Real Madrid’s Rafael Van Der Vaart.
It appears that the transfers made so far are not paying out yet, since Schalke lost their opening match against Hamburger away from home.
Hannover managed to beat Frankfurt at home, so there is confidence in the squad that they will manage to stay clear of the danger zone this season.
Unfortunately, winger Carlitos suffered a serious knee injury (ligament rupture) and will probably miss the whole season.
Young defender Howedes is suspended for Schalke, after receiving a red card last week against Hamburger.
I do not believe we can rely on Schalke for home wins just yet, given the numerous disappointing results they had last season, but they will be looking to bounce back so backing Hannover also seems too risky.
- No bet.
VfL Wolfsburg - FSV Mainz 05
Mainz coach Thomas Tuchel insists there is more to come from his side after they started the Bundesliga season with a 2-0 win over Stuttgart on Sunday.
“We showed that we are competitive. Our new signings were spectacular and we are not finished yet.”
Well, coach Tuchel has every reason to believe his squad is capable of being competitive. They had a great run last season, that included an 11 match undefeated run at home plus the 3-3 draw against their current opponents, after being down 2-0 and 3-2, so Wolfsburg will definitely not take this match lightly.
Misimovic is moving to Schalke and Friedrich is out indefinitely due to back injury, which will probably lead him to surgery. In search for Misimovic’s replacement, the Wolves will reportedly launch a €20 million bid for Juventus midfielder Diego. Real Madrid desire Edin Dzeko, but Wolfsburg demand €40 million in return so that transfer looks unlikely.
The hosts will be looking to bounce back, however the odds on the home win are of zero value and even though it is the same with odds on the over 2.5 goals, I believe it is the only bet that looks almost solid.
- Over 2.5 goals, 1.58 at Bet365
Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV
Another clash between two teams who had opposite results during their opening matches. Frankfurt lost to Hannover, while Hamburger beat Schalke, thanks to striker Ruud van Nistelrooy.
Eintracht Frankfurt left-back Nikola Petkovic will join Amkar Perm on loan until January 2011.
Both matches between these teams ended in a draw last season, while we should keep in mind that the hosts were particularly strong when playing at home.
It looks like betting on another draw between them is a risk worth taking here.
As an alternative, we could back Eintracht to bounce back this week on the draw-no-bet home win. Needless to say, stake only some change on this, if you must.
FC Nürnberg - SC Freiburg
The hosts got their first point this season last week, against Gladbach away from home. The visitors must have thought they had won the match, as soon as Cisse scored after 78 minutes against St. Pauli, however during the final 10 minutes they conceded 3 goals and left the stadium with their heads down.
Last season, both teams were fighting to avoid relegation, with the hosts eventually participating in the play-outs, while the visitors managed to stay clear of the danger zone.
I would personally opt for the home win here, however I cannot ignore the fact that Freiburg won both matches against Nurnberg last season, which was pretty much the factor that sealed the fate of both teams, Freiburg finishing with 35 points, while Nurnberg collected 31. Had Nurnberg won either of these matches their places would have been reversed, so with that in mind the hosts will surely pay very much attention to this match. This could lead the game to a draw so I believe that the only safe choice is a draw-no-bet pick.
- Home win draw-no-bet, 1.44 at Bet365
18:30 CET
FC St. Pauli - 1899 Hoffenheim
This is the third consecutive season for Hoffenheim in the top league and just by looking at the result of their opening match, 4-1 win against Werder, we can conclude one thing: They seem to be repeating what they achieved both last season and the season before that, which was an absolutely incredible start to the season. When they were newcomers in 2008, they managed to win 8 out of their first 11 matches (losing only to Bremen and Leverkusen), while last season they won 6 out of 11 matches and lost only 3 of them.
On the other hand, the hosts have returned to the top league after many years and are looking to stay there as comfortably as possible. When they had to attack in order to equalize after conceding last week, they did so much more. They scored 3 goals in the last 10 minutes, grabbing an away win that will probably prove to be extremely valuable later on. This week they are playing in front of their own fans and they are even stronger at home. Odds are favouring the visitors, but I tend to disagree. The home win offered at 3.20 is the pick that appears more valuable, however this match could really go either way.
- No bet.
Sunday 29th August 2010
Once again, three teams out of these four were playing another important Europa League match, late Thursday evening.
15:30 CET
Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach
Leverkusen managed to beat Dortmund away from home last week, a result that brought smiles to the whole squad and filled them with confidence. Three days ago they were playing against Tavriya Simferopol in Ukkraine, but their task wasn’t too difficult as they had already won the first leg match by 3-0 and they had a chance to rest some of the regulars. Despite the changes, they still won the second leg match by 3-1. Gladbach started the new season with a draw against Nurnberg. It was striker Mohamadou Idrissou who scored on his Gladbach debut, but that wasn’t enough for Borussia to collect all three points. Goalkeeper Logan Bailly has been ruled out of this match after he suffered an injury to his left foot during training on Wednesday. Leverkusen defender Hans Sarpei just signed a two-year deal with Schalke. Michael Ballack did manage to play 90 minutes last week, but he did not follow the club to Ukraine since he still hasn’t completely recovered from that ankle injury. Even worse for him, the latest reports indicate that he will not be a part of the Germany squad for the upcoming Euro 2012 qualifiers.
Igor De Camargo will probably make his Gladbach debut this week, in the offensive line. The hosts definitely have the upper hand here, however the odds are low.
- Home win, 1.40 at Bwin
17:30 CET
VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund
These two teams have some things in common. First of all, they both lost their opening matches by 2-0 last week. Moreover, they both had Europa League matches this week. This is where similarities end and differences appear. Dortmund were playing in Azerbaijan while Stuttgart were playing at home. However, Dortmund had already won the first leg match by 4-0 so they had the luxury of saving energy (they actually won again, this time by 1-0), while Stuttgart had won only by 1-0 in Bratislava and in the second leg, after 53 minutes they were down 2-0 in front of their own fans. Things changed as soon as Slovan scored that second goal, as they were reduced to 10 men. Immediately after that red card, Stuttgart pulled one back but they still would have been eliminated had they lost by 1-2. Fortunately for them, within 10 minutes they scored another goal and held on to a draw which put them in the Europa League group stage.
So, with Dortmund having made the long trip midweek but with Stuttgart having overcome a dangerous situation with anxiety, which team will manage to claim their first points of the season? Perhaps they can share them equally. I do not expect to see many goals scored here.
